2 Dec 2005
“The World Isn’t Running Out of Oil” … or is it? Let’s ask the Oil Companies…
All the indications are that we are nearing the peak in world oil production, indeed, if Kenneth Deffeyes, author of ‘Beyond Oil’, is to be believed, it passed a couple of weeks ago. Predictions from a range of writers and professionals seem to be converging into two ‘clumps’. The one group, who comprise mostly people with a background in geology, such as Colin Campbell and Chris Skrebowski, tend to gather around 2007-2010 as the date for the peak. A second group, mostly economists or Government bodies, present more optimistic scenarios, around 2020 -2035. But what of the oil companies? What do those who ultimately hold the true reserves data that most other researchers can only guess at, have to say about when we might reach the peak?
As part of the research for his 2002 paper [“Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an overview
Tahoe Valley Lines
4 Dec 11:33pm
The mid-century transport model of an energy-independent USA is useful. Railway coverage is thorough, even redundant. Lots of branchline, even plentiful electric powered railways, with local power company corporate linkages. Localisation will take anothe look at this sustainable model.. Oil giants might see useful ways to build their new empire of renewable energy, with the parallel bar therapy connection. SOCIETAL COHESION is a corporate interest!
See (peakoil.net) article 374. See The US Congress’ 1838 mandate- “All Railroads” designated as “Post Roads”. Localisation/sustainability savants must include “Second Dimension Surface Transport Logistics Platform”- railway, vastly expanded in capacity & reach, linked to local renewable energy… in their agendas.
6 Dec 1:37pm
I saw the Chevron advert, and didn’t read it that way. Saying that I’ve eaten one orange and am eating the next doesn’t tell you anything about whether I had two oranges to start with or five. The *next* billion and the *last* billion are physically distinct concepts and I’m surprised that the possibility hadn’t occured to Campbell.
Equally, we shouldn’t berate the oil companies for not focussing unduly on the petro-pessimist argument. Their whole experience is based on their success at overcoming at the time seemingly insurmountable challenges (drilling at all, drilling offshore, drilling sideways, drilling in deep water, drilling in the Arctic, etc.) For them, this is just another seemingly insurmountable obstacle …
Not should we rely on them to do so. Their job is to execute their business logic. Our (citizens) job is to make the life choices we feel are appropriate, given the information available to us.
It’s just lazy to say “a big oil company made me do it and said it would be OK!”.
But a helpful summary of current positions and good post – thank you.